Mergers, but No Mania

Many potential weak links for investors may trip the market in the next several days, as most of the data are manufacturing-related. Manufacturing is the segment of the economy known by investors as the chink in Goldilocks' armor.

Indeed, ex-Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan opened the day with talk of a recession this year. "When you get this far away from a recession, invariably forces build up for the next recession, and indeed we are beginning to see that sign, for example in the U.S. profit margins ... have begun to stabilize, which is an early sign we are in the later stages of a cycle," he said in a speech Monday that was broadcast via satellite in Hong Kong for the Very GC Global Business Insights 2007 Conference.

Greenspan's words may have been largely dismissed by stock traders, but the Treasury bond market took heed. The 10-year Treasury bond fell to 4.63% from 4.68% on Friday. The yield on the 10-year has slid from 4.89% at the end of January as evidence has emerged that growth may not be as gangbusters as previously thought.

This week, the government's second estimate of fourth-quarter GDP is expected to be 2.3%, revised from 3.5%, while the Institute for Supply Management's manufacturing index and the Chicago Purchasing Managers Index are each expected to show flat activity.