Too Many Bets Placed on Empire Resorts

Empire has not specifically given guidance for the project, but the company's chief financial officer, Ronald Radcliffe, provided us a framework for building a model.

Radcliffe says that the slots at the Catskills project should be able to grab two-thirds of the daily win per machine of the slots at Mohegan Sun in Connecticut. Mohegan's slots grab a $400 win per day per machine.

For the table games, Radcliffe declined to give a specific win number, but several Wall Street analysts say that a win number between $1,500 to $2,000 per table per day is a good range. Our projections use the low end.

Although an agreement hasn't been finalized, New York state is expected to eventually take about 25% of the slots proceeds, with the possibility of a lower 22% in early years. Our estimate assumes the 25% state payout.