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Too Many Bets Placed on Empire Resorts

The planned Indian casino in upstate New York would be a tremendous success for the state, the tribe and Empire Resorts (NYNY - Get Report), the company that would manage the property.

Empire Resorts' stock is up 36% this year on news that the long-planned Catskills casino is close to final approval. Last Tuesday, New York Gov. Eliot Spitzer gave his final approval for the project, sending shares up 19% last week alone.

Anyone thinking of jumping on the bandwagon of Empire's stock is likely too late, however. And those who are already on board might be wise to cash out.

At just under $12, the stock is trading close to full value, according to's estimates. If you throw in any sort of meaningful risk that the project won't get final approval from the federal government, then the stock looks expensive.

The planned $600 million casino would sit next to Empire's Monticello Raceway in the Catskills region of upstate New York, about 1½ hours from New York City.

For the project to be built, the federal government must approve the transfer of 30 acres of land that Empire owns to the U.S. government. The property will then be held in a trust for members of the St. Regis Mohawk tribe, who will profit most from the site.

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