Alcoa Deal Not Certain

Meanwhile, nickel, which last year sold for around $15,000 a metric ton, now commands prices approaching $40,000.

Such performances may have some ill-advised speculators thinking aluminum is due to catch up and eventually be pulled higher by the generally rising tide.

But that's a hard-sell, because growth in aluminum demand is being met with solid increases in supply. Stocks in London Metal Exchange warehouses now total more than 750,000 metric tons, (1.7 billion pounds) -- plenty to avert any near-term tightness that might send prices shooting skyward.

"Aluminum market fundamentals are less compelling than they were last year," says Gayle Berry, research manager at Metal Bulletin Research in London, who notes that modestly higher prices have prompted increased production of the metal and alumina, the main raw material. She sees demand growing steadily as China's economy expands.

Other observers seem to agree.

"Supply and demand for aluminum will grow roughly in line with each other," says Neil Buxton, managing director at GFMS Metals Consulting in London. "We're not really looking for massive swings."

In simple terms, he's saying the market will remain balanced. And unlike with other metals, there are few supply or technology worries likely to interrupt production.

To make aluminum, all that is required is alumina, a supply of electricity and a smelter. They call this a basic industry for a reason.