Not the Time to Buy Tech

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 5 at 11:23 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

You want an untold story? How about the underperformance of tech, despite the endless attempts of people to try to flog the story as a major part of the bull market of 2007? In fact, it would be better to be in the homebuilders or the cyclicals; these are the fantastic performers of 2007. Same with the oils. I would take the steels over the semis any day of the week.

Check out the SOX and the Semiconductor HOLDRS(SMH Quote), the tech bellwethers. They peaked at the beginning of the year and haven't come near taking out their highs. Why is that? I would emphasize that we are right at the seasonal change of heart for tech and you aren't going to get the outperformance you are looking for from this group.

If you don't believe this -- and you probably don't -- take a look at Seagate(STX Quote) and Komag(KOMG Quote). The latter reported a good number but didn't give good guidance. That was totally fatal and the stock has turned into a major-league bow-wow.

Seagate, on the other hand, put up gigantic numbers and guided up huge, yet till is down from where it reported -- actually down a lot as a percentage basis.

Microsoft's(MSFT Quote) not doing anything either, and is starting to head down now. Hewlett-Packard's(HPQ Quote) been stung by the Dell(DELL Quote) news of Michael's return and is struggling to get back to where it was.

Qualcomm's(QCOM Quote) gone from $39 to $37 and has failed to rally on good news. Same with EMC(EMC Quote). Same with Google(GOOG Quote).

Don't believe the hype. This is not the moment to buy tech, despite the hype.

Better to look elsewhere as the seasonal gravity once again takes its toll.

Random musings: One small exception to this downturn is MRV Communications(MRVC Quote). That's a restructuring story, though. ... College students, listen up! RealMoney is offering you something special... a free subscription through May 31, 2007. The only requirement: You must have an email address that ends in .edu. Email [e-mail] to accept my personal invitation to come read my blog every day, plus all the other writers on that great site. Pass it on!