Plan on a Fed Cut in May

More evidence not of a static view by the Federal Reserve, but that May will bring a Fed cut.

It should be obvious right now to even the pundits, who are continually wrong about the Fed -- as is basically everyone I see commenting -- that the big industries that employ people in this country, housing and autos, are scaling back and laying off in droves. The housing downturn did not dawn on the industry until the second half of last year, allowing for construction on houses that were just started. Those houses are now completed and those workers nationwide are being laid off.

The numbers out of the major American auto companies Thursday show that the layoffs must be accelerated, and that even after all of the headcount reductions, both GM(GM Quote - Cramer on GM - Stock Picks) and Ford(F Quote - Cramer on F - Stock Picks) are way too heavily staffed.

I do not believe that either manufacturing or service components away from these two industries can make up the slack.

That slack plus the lower inflation data make it an easy call for the Fed to cut rates in May. And I am still basing my stock selections -- the most recent Action Alerts PLUS buy being Union Pacific(UNP Quote - Cramer on UNP - Stock Picks) -- on that view.

Random musings: If you love following stocks as much as I do and want to help me help people make money, you're someone I need. I'm looking for an experienced research assistant based in the New York metro area to help me out. (CFAs welcome.) Please send your resum and cover letter to [e-mail], with "research assistant" in the subject line.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Union Pacific.