32 Reasons Stocks Will Jump This Year

15. The mania for commodities will completely end. We'll even recognize a bear market in the sector as the CRB Index falls another 10% to 15% for the year. The end of the commodity mania will be viewed as the "pin that pricked the U.S. negativity bubble."

16. Oil falls to $35 to $40 per barrel as the extreme euphoria surrounding its push above $70 per barrel last year finally gets viewed as a major top. Among the catalysts I see for this outcome:

• lower growth in the demand for oil in emerging-market economies
• an explosion in alternatives
• rising spare production capacity
• increasing global refining capacity
• the complete debunking of the hugely flawed "peak oil" theory
• a firmer U.S. dollar
• less demand for gas-guzzling vehicles
• accelerating non-OPEC production
• a reversal of the "contango" in the futures market
• a smaller risk premium
• essentially full global storage
• downside speculation by investment funds

I also expect oil to test $20 to $25 per barrel within the next three years.

17. The situation in the Middle East will "beat" very low expectations as Iran, with the government under fire due to rapidly deteriorating economic conditions, makes some concessions regarding its nuclear program and as the violence in Iraq actually lessens to some extent in the second half of the year.

18. The hugely positive effects from the meaningful decline in energy prices will continue to assert themselves throughout the U.S. economy and stock market.

19. Natural gas will break below last September's low of $4.05 per million BTU as absolute levels in storage hit an all-time high and liquefied natural gas imports into the U.S. surge over 30%.

20. Gold will break below $550 per ounce as demand continues to languish, inflation decelerates further, the U.S. dollar stabilizes and even rises, and investment-fund speculation subsides.

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