Wall St. Confidential: Tech Trouble

Away from tech, Cramer said to keep an eye on Caterpillar (CAT Quote) as a tell on where this market is headed. Cat, stuck at $60 and "outrageously difficult" to decipher, is the key to the market. Whichever way the stock goes, Cramer said he will have greater certainty of where the market will go.

"If it goes against me, it will go down and I will reconfigure my thesis," he said. "But I think we are going to see it start to climb."

People should also focus on looking at what's going to happen six months from now, because you can't make any money with what is happening now, he said. "We are not in a world where it helps you to know what IBM did yesterday," Cramer said.

Journalists only look at one side of the equation, so if there's strong growth in employment or decent pricing power, they presume the Fed doesn't need to do anything and will hold off on cutting or raising the rates, he said. But this is not true, Cramer insisted.

"The Fed's job is to stimulate growth when there's not a lot of growth and not a lot of inflation," he said. "We don't have a lot of inflation and people are not looking at that at all."

For example, despite reporting a "horrible" quarter, Pulte Homes (PHM Quote) is up today, Cramer pointed out. This is not because the market is stupid, but because the Fed is going to cut rates, he said.

"Of course I could be wrong," Cramer admitted. "But in the end, I'm making a bet."

He said he doesn't fear being wrong because when all is said and done, if he's a little bit more right than he is wrong, he knows he's going to make "big money."

Cramer called the May rate hike a "big mistake," and said if the Fed doesn't cut this time around, "the market will be caught leaning the wrong way again."