Short Trader: Bears Keep Control of Microsemi

Editor's note: Formerly, Dan Fitzpatrick's short trading ideas were available only to subscribers to TheStreet.com's Short Advisor. Now these picks are being offered to RealMoney and TheStreet.com readers.

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The power has been flowing to the bears in Microsemi (MSCC Quote) for some time.

The company makes integrated circuits and semiconductors, which are used to manage power consumption in electronic devices, such as laptops, flat-panel TVs, implantable pacemakers and satellites. While its industry group has actually been rather strong over the past six months or so, shares of Microsemi have been declining at a fairly steady clip.

Let's look at what the weekly chart (below) is telling us.

First, after rolling over in early 2006, the stock has been trending lower ever since.

Second, the relative strength index (RSI) -- a measure of momentum -- has been hitting a series of lower highs and lower lows, confirming the downtrend. (RSI ranges from 1 to 100; a reading above 70 is generally bullish, and below 30 is bearish.)

Last, notice also how the last rally failed to tag the middle Bollinger Band. The stock has now fallen below $18, with shares closing at $17.98 Wednesday.

Given these indicators, the outlook for Microsemi still looks glum, offering traders a short opportunity.

The short entry would be at $17.50, just below last week's low.

Once the trade is entered, the buy-stop should go around $19.25. If Microsemi rebounds that high, you don't want to be long.

I'm looking for the stock to drop down to test $14, so that's the downside target.

Microsemi (MSCC) -- Weekly