Funds' Hot Streak Could Be Cooling

For the last three years, making money in the markets has been easy -- if you just kept your money in oil, commodities and emerging markets. But is the long ride coming to an end? One of America's top mutual fund managers says it might be.

"It certainly has the potential to be over," says Manu Daftary, manager of the (QUAGX Quote)Quaker Strategic Growth Fund. "I don't know if it's over for certain, but the market is saying it may not be as good as it used to be. Commodity cycles tend to last about three years."

If the cycle trend continues, that would suggest 2007 will be different from the previous three years. That is particularly bad news for emerging markets that reaped the most benefits from the commodity boom, such as Russia and Brazil.

Daftary's fund finished the year up 5.13% compared with the S&P 500's 14.15%, ending his streak of eight consecutive years of beating the index. But he is already making broad changes to his portfolio to position himself for 2007 and beyond.

Once a big energy bull, he has now cut his investment in the sector and in commodities as well. But he still wants to maintain some holdings in the energy stocks. He believes sentiment toward the sector is so negative that any positive news -- even a decent cold snap -- could give them a healthy trading bounce.