It's Not the End of the World

The U.S. trade deficit in November fell more than expected, in part because of improving exports; this improves economists' estimates for fourth-quarter GDP. The deficit for November fell to $58.3 billion -- below expectations for $60 billion. The deficit is now 15%, or $10 billion lower from its August peak, writes Peter Kretzmer, senior economist at Bank of America.

Weekly mortgage applications were also strong, supporting the notion that the housing market correction is bottoming. Mortgage applications jumped 16.2% in the week ended Jan. 5, the biggest weekly gain since the week ended May 2, 2003, notes Tony Crescenzi, chief fixed-income strategist at Miller Tabak and RealMoney.com contributor. The data suggest that "home sales continue to stabilize," he writes.

As for the weather, don't put your hats and scarves away just yet. AccuWeather.com's chief long-term forecaster Joe Bastardi says this winter could yet mimic some of the country's worst, according to a press release. The ugliest possible scenario is a repeat of the 1977 to 1978 winter, which was marked by a warm start and a "waning El Nino" that spun into back-to-back blizzards in 1978 in the Northeast.

But, if you think that means global warming isn't happening, just search Google for "Ayles Ice Shelf" for some sobering reading.