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The Valuation Game

Just because a stock is going up doesn't mean that the bulls are right. For the bulls to be right, the stock price has to stay up. Short-term price action in markets and individual securities is validation of nothing.

There are multiple short-term forces at work distorting the price of all asset classes. Stocks do have definable value, even tech stocks, and this discipline requires strict adherence for both risk management and portfolio return maximization.

The stock market is, after all, a mechanism for valuing businesses. From practitioners of technical analysis to growth fund managers to television personalities, many factors distort the valuation of the businesses in the short term. My goal is to use these "dislocations" to establish profitable longer-term positions -- and to explain my rationale so you may do the same.

In this pursuit, I am lucky because I am a disagreeable individual. It isn't a conscious choice; I just don't play well with others. Even my friends just tolerate me because they need someone to drink with or beat them at tennis. When it comes to investing, my personality has proven an advantage. If there is one certain way to have a unique approach and a less market-correlated performance, it is to run counter to the trend.
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KOOL $2.30 0.44%
NOK $5.69 -1.22%
MSFT $49.94 0.14%
PFE $33.57 0.51%
T $38.74 -0.36%


Chart of I:DJI
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S&P 500 2,050.63 -0.49 -0.02%
NASDAQ 4,717.0940 -8.5450 -0.18%

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