Emerging Concern, Shiny Apple

Although the iPhone threat (perceived or actual) weighed on shares of Research In Motion (RIMM), Palm (PALM) and major cell-phone providers, other technology companies continued to do well Tuesday. Shares of Dell(DELL), IBM(IBM) and Hewlett Packard(HPQ) added between 0.6% and 2.5% on the day.

Earnings season kicked off on a strong note after the close Tuesday, as aluminum producer Alcoa(AA) reported a stronger-than-expected fourth quarter. Shares of the company were gaining 5% in after-hours trading.

The tech strength offset more weakness in the energy sector as oil fell another 0.5%, or 28 cents, to close at $55.81 per barrel. The price had plunged as much as $2 per barrel intraday. Oil stocks fell in kind. Shares of Exxon Mobil(XOM), BP(BP), and Chevron(CVX) dropped between 0.8% and 2.9% on the day.

It seems difficult for investors to decide if oil-price weakness is good or bad for the U.S. economy. Less inflation pressure is good, but less demand is scary.

The truth of the decline may well be in the hands of speculators, who are taking off commodities bets they've had in place for months.

Merrill Lynch's Richard Bernstein notes that speculation "does appear to be starting to calm down, but only just a bit." His models show commodities speculation peaked in September 2006, when listed commodities were priced at levels "more than 60% above what could be justified by fundamentals," he writes.

That has moved down to 43%, Bernstein says. Long-term investors should stick with their investments in commodities for diversification purposes, he continues, but warns that investors looking for another big win in 2007 "might be disappointed."

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