Coming Week: Seeking Therapy

Oil could continue to influence trading in the coming week, as could the government's retail sales report and the first big-name earnings release for the fourth quarter.

Earnings Turnaround

Dow component Alcoa(AA Quote), whose report is often viewed as the unofficial kickoff to earnings season, will release its results on Tuesday.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson First Call expect the aluminum giant to post earnings of 66 cents a share, up from 35 cents last year, on revenue of $7.63 billion.

To start the week, Horizon Health(HORC Quote), Spectrum Control (SPEC Quote) and Schnitzer Steel Industries(SCHN Quote) will be reporting earnings on Monday.

Aside from Alcoa, Tuesday will bring reports from Emmis Communications(EMMS Quote), Ruby Tuesday(RI Quote), Audiovox(VOXX Quote) and WD-40 (WDFC Quote).

Genentech(DNA Quote) will highlight Wednesday's earnings lineup. Analysts are expecting the biotech powerhouse to report a fourth-quarter profit of 55 cents a share, up from 34 cents last year, on revenue of $2.53 billion.

On Thursday, M&T Bank(MTB Quote), Stride Rite(SRR Quote) and XM Satellite Radio(XMSR Quote) will be on the earnings docket.

Economic Checkup

The health of the U.S. consumer will be examined on Monday, when consumer credit for November is released. Economists expect a rise of $5.5 billion, compared with a drop of $1.2 billion in the prior month.

Despite the projected spike in credit card debt, Wachovia economist Gina Martin says the consumer is holding up far better than anticipated, primarily due to wage growth.

"People have not needed to take out as much credit because they have seen their incomes rise," says Martin.

Meanwhile, Wednesday will spotlight the health of the nation's finances with the release of the November trade balance. Economists are predicting the nation's trade deficit will widen to $59.5 billion for the month from $58.9 billion in October.

Wholesale inventories for November also will be released on Wednesday. Economists are projecting a 0.5% rise, after 0.8% growth in October.

The December Treasury budget will be delivered on Thursday. Economists will be looking for the nation's coffers to expand by $21 billion, up from $11.2 billion the month before.

The consumer returns to the spotlight on Friday with the release of December retail sales. The consensus estimate is for a rise of 0.7%, down from a 1% jump in November. Excluding autos, retail sales for the month are expected to rise 0.6%, down from the 1.1% increase the prior month.

"Retail sales may not look that strong at first glance, especially compared to last year, which was the strongest since 1999," says Wachovia's Martin. "But it's still going to be a strong season."

Also scheduled for release on Friday are import and export prices for December, as well as business inventories for November.

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading? Bullish Bearish Neutral 2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities 3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week? --Choose One--Aerospace and DefenseAirlinesAutomobilesBeverages and Food ProductsBiotechnologyCommercial BanksComputers and PeripheralsConsumer NondurablesEnergy Equipment & ServicesHMOs and HospitalsHomebuildingInsuranceIntegrated OilInternet, Software ServicesInvestment Bankers and BrokersMediaMultiline RetailPharmaceuticalsPrecious MetalsSemis, Semi EquipmentTelecom EquipmentTobacco and AlcoholWireless CommunicationsUtilities View the results without voting