10 Things to Watch in Big-Cap Health Care

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Jan. 5 at 2:30 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.

While all of us pundits have our list of hopes, concerns and expectations, I thought it would be helpful to put together a list of 10 items in large-cap health care worth keeping an eye on. These aren't arranged in any particular order, but I do believe the influence of big-cap valuations trickling down to the rest of the players is important enough to monitor those stocks to help navigate the year.

1. Amgen vs. Roche.

With the erythropoietin (EPO) market for anemia medication on the line, this fight may play out in two separate parts in 2007. First, Amgen AMGN has precedent on its side in its lawsuit against Roche for alleged patent infringement. Many believe Roche's CERA is just a slightly modified version of Amgen's blockbuster duo, Epogen and Aranesp. The question remains: What exactly is CERA? Roche has shrouded the molecule with secrecy. If Amgen is successful in blocking Roche through the courts, Amgen's stock is unquestionably cheap. If not, the second part of the battle -- the one for market share -- will begin.

2. Large licensing deals and more M&A.

Activity on both the licensing and the acquisition fronts was high in 2006, and I expect that to continue in 2007. Licensing deals became much more expensive in the past six to 12 months, and I have no reason to believe that will change, considering all the players and their money at the table. Longer-term concerns for Big Pharma and Big Biotech (discussed later in this column) will keep their thirst for deals elevated, and I believe sowing the seeds several years in advance is in the best interests of all players. I expect there to be mistakes, as usual, but they will be more expensive in the current deal environment. This could change the deal landscape if they strike at the wrong time.

3. Boston Scientific: Turnaround or not?

Boston Scientific BSX has all the makings of a potentially great stock in 2007. Its end markets should return to growth by year-end, and other negative overhangs should be removed as the year progresses. Unfortunately for me, it doesn't carry a turnaround valuation, considering its large slate of challenges and questions.

The company is still trying to fix its manufacturing woes with the Food and Drug Administration related to some of the Guidant products. In addition, I believe Boston Scientific was so willing to overpay for Guidant in 2006 because it recognized the brutally competitive landscape looming in the drug-eluting-stent market, its legacy cash cow. If things go well on the operational turnaround and manufacturing, and competition in stents appears manageable, the stock works. If not, look out below. I'll pass on a coin-toss bet.