Weekend Linkfest

That was a hell of a surprising year, to say the least. The market sold off midyear but rallied back harder than many people (including me) anticipated. By just about any measure, 2006 was a much stronger year than most had forecast. By the numbers, the Russell 2000 surged 17%, just edging out the Dow's gain of 16.3%. The Standard & Poor's 500 rose 13.6%, while the Nasdaq Composite was the laggard, gaining "just" 9.5%.

Oil gained exactly one penny over 2006, but it sure didn't feel that way. Natural gas plummeted 44% for the year. Gold was a winner, up 23%, but the yellow metal couldn't keep up with either copper (up 41%) or silver (up 46%). The U.S. dollar, measured by the J.P. Morgan dollar index, lost about 4%. Overseas markets were also up in a big way, with most outperforming the U.S. indices.

Let's take a look at the key stories gone by, and those that will matter in '07. It's the last linkfest of 2006!

Editor's note: To access some of these stories, registration or a subscription may be required. Please check the individual links for the site's policy.

INVESTING & TRADING

• "LET'S DISPENSE WITH THE SUSPENSE. We already know what 2007 will mean for the stock market: Because it is the third year of a presidential term, the market will be up dramatically, as has been the case in such years. But because it's a year ending in "7" that is not the second year of a presidential term, 2007 will not be as good as typical third years of the election cycle. And let's not forget that because it's a "7" year that's also the fifth year of a bull market, we'll see a late-year crash, a la 1937 and '87." So writes Mike Santoli, with tongue planted firmly in cheek, in this week's Barron's Trader column.

• The New York Times' Floyd Norris asks: Does the S.E.C. Know What It Is Doing?

• Given the underperformance of the Nasdaq, it's no surprise we witnessed a Nasdaq Trend Break.

• Why did so many IPOs list in London and Hong Kong? For the same reason Willie Sutton robbed banks: It's where the money is. The Big Apple's glory days have passed.

• There are tons of year-end reviews and previews:

Year End Review & Preview (MarketWatch)

How the Bulls Stole Wall Street (The Wall Street Journal)

2006 Revisited: Spanning the Globe (The Wall Street Journal's Marketbeat blog)

Markets Scorecard 2006 (free in The Wall Street Journal)

What to Watch for in 2007 (free in The Wall Street Journal)

10 stocks that could outperform in 2007 (MarketWatch)

• And since it is that time of year: Seven Pointers for Parsing Predictions.

• Here's a surprise no one forecast: Securities Fraud Lawsuits Fall to 10-Year Low in 2006.

• So many Wall Street bonuses, so few Ferraris: If you can find a 599, then grab one. Otherwise, you may have to make do with a mere 430. (Don't look so glum, the Spider is a fun ride.)

• It's been a very long time since we saw an S&P 500 2% Correction.

• Does your financial advisor add value? A seminal study this year suggests most do not... (PDF)

• S&P's Stovall Says History Supports a Continued Bull Market. (video)

• The WSJ looks at bosses' pay: How Stock Options Became Part of the Problem.

• Take a look at this 4-year chart for the dollar. Ouch!

• Doubling Down on Emerging Markets. (Barron's)

• The Telegraph (U.K.) asks: M&A bankers enjoy the boom but is the bubble about to burst?

• Good advice for the new year: Resolve to Save More, Cut Debt.

• Tips for Donating Your Used Junk. (Note the timely tax factor.)

• Finally, under personal finance, the WSJ's reporters' Strategies for Saving Time and Money.

---

ECONOMY

This week, the Wall of Worry eased back a bit:

• Mark Hulbert asks: Is the market signaling recession? Taking all the recent information assimilated by the financial markets together, the message is that an economic downturn may be on tap.

• Mike Darda of MKM Partners sees Economy Growing at About 3% in 2007. (video)

• Growth or recession in 2007?

• Top economists answer 10 burning economic questions.

• ATA Truck Tonnage Index Plummeted 3.6 Percent in November. (There are a lot of comments here.)

• This is intriguing: Does the consumer price index overstate food inflation? Consider the impact of big-box stores on retail food prices.

---

HOUSING

• Housing developments last week and this week (from Nouriel Roubini's blog).

• John Mauldin took the weekend off, so he used a commentary I had written for the office as a guest piece: Real Estate and the Post-Crash Economy. It is a long analysis that attempts to put the real estate boom into some context: how it developed, what's gone right and wrong and what could happen going forward.

• TheStreet.com's Marek Fuchs wonders whether there's too much housing hope.

• Good news for bargain hunters: Distressed Real-Estate: Priced to Sell in 2007.

• Well, which is it?

- End of Housing Slump Seems to Be Drawing Near

- Housing Bottoming? Hardly.

- Home Sales Bode Well for Big Picture

- Housing Bears May Just Have It Right for 2007

• All this leads to the question: Will the housing market stabilize in 2007?

• Meanwhile, REITS, with their emphasis on commercial real estate, have avoided the residential woes: Housing Falloff Hasn't Troubled REIT Funds.

• They are still relatively low, but mortgage rates have jumped, according to a Bankrate.com survey. Also, New tax law tweaks home-buying math.

• Good advice for the future: Making Your House Pay in Retirement.

---

FEDERAL RESERVE

It's been quiet on the Fed front for a while (a little too quiet). Here's what caught my eye this week:

• Is the Fed painted into a corner? Economists see the Fed's rate-hike pause lasting for another six months. See also: It's the Fed vs. the markets as main event of 2007.

• Econogeek! I love this monthly collection of charts published by the St. Louis Fed's Monetary Trends.

• Central Banks Will Give Less of the Same in 2007.

• European Money-Supply Growth Is Fastest in 16 Years.

---

RETAIL/SHOPPING

The postmortem on holiday shopping:

• In general, Holiday Sales Fell Short. Data from the ICSC was disappointing. So too was the wrapup from Master Card Advisors.

• Which is the perfect lead in for Bloomberg columnist Caroline Baum: Christmas Is Over. Let the Sales Angst Begin!

• An extensive look at The State of the Consumer, by the Numbers, from Northern Trust.

• Wal-Mart Blames Short-Term Woes, But Some Expect Challenges to Remain. Meanwhile, the company's December sales were up 1.6% from a year ago (fair, but better than expected).

---

SENTIMENT/PSYCHOLOGY

• Barron's Alan Abelson writes: "What strikes us about the current investment scene is how defensive, even delusional, the raging bulls are. And despite rolling in the long green by grace of the big market year, what a bunch of sore winners they are, insistent that everyone else is bearish and only they, brave souls, have the courage to be optimistic." (If no Barron's, go here.)

• One of the more difficult aspects of transitioning from trader to strategist is reconciling the short-term technical aspects of the market with the longer-term macro environment. Since July, we have seen a decaying macro picture concurrent with a strong market trend. If you follow both, it can make you schizoid.

• Bullish Mood for '07 Has Some People Feeling Bad.

---

ENERGY

• Study: Iran faces crisis as its oil exports drop. (It's no excuse for a nuclear program, though.)

• Uh-oh: U.S. Official Overseeing Oil Program Faces Inquiry. (It's bad form to get paid as a consultant for oil companies that are hoping to get contracts you oversee.)

• Chris Edmonds says Oil Prices Could Spike to $80 in 2007. (Bloomberg video)

---

MEDIA

• How Much Should Be Shown of a Hanging? In the NYT, Network Executives Wonder and Wait. The Washington Post has partial video of the hanging. Meanwhile, you just know this will eventually show up on either YouTube or Rotten (much more below under War & Politics).

• The U.S. funds the Taliban? Israel & Iran hold secret talks? The Top Ten Stories You Missed in 2006.

• WSJ.com's Best Read of 2006. (free)

• Dow Jones(DJ Quote) Chairman Peter Kann lists 10 current trends in the mass media that "ought to disturb us." In The Power of the Press, he writes, "There are too many instant celebrities. Too many two-day crises. Too many 'defining moments' from people in search of instant history."

Speaking of which, the WSJ opinion page continues not to get blogs (or a whole lot else): Journalists, Heal Thyselves.

• Macaca, Menaissance, Herstory, Global Warming Denier: The Top Politically inCorrect Words for 2006.

• The Best Sports Columns of 2006.

• BBC: Photos of the year 2006.

• 100 things we didn't know last year.

---

WAR & POLITICS

"They said you was hung."
"And they was right."

Thus ends the saga of Saddam Hussein: dictator, madman, tyrant, collector of miniature antique doll houses. News reports poured in from all over:

• The Associated Press assembled comments on Saddam's execution from leaders around the world, most of whom had a bigger problem with the death penalty than they did with Saddam. In Iraq, the response was a mixture of Fear, indifference, jubilation over death. CNN reported that Iraqis reacted with joy, anger to Hussein's death sentence. Iran rejoiced, Saddam's supporters were bitter. The Voice of America's report is here. The NYT's obit is here: The Defiant Despot Oppressed Iraq for More Than 30 Years. The Washington Post's is here: Saddam Hussein Is Put to Death.

• Even with Saddam gone, Iraq remains an unfortunate quagmire. Joshua Micah Marshall's Talking Points Memo gives a bleak view of what it means.

• Interesting connections between Presidents Gerald Ford and George W. Bush: Ford Aides Shape Bush Tenure.

• Bloomberg: World's 'Worst' Visa System Scares Business Away From the U.S. .

• For the first time, more troops disapprove of the president's handling of the war than approve of it. (Barely one-third of service members approve.) Poll: More troops unhappy with Bush's course in Iraq.

• Wired Magazine: The Bush Era Draws to a Close.

---

TECHNOLOGY & SCIENCE

• Debate: Is 'Web 2.0' Another Bubble?

• The Wall Street Journal's Walt Mossberg has this video on high-definition digital video recorders. (See also: The HDTV Dilemma: Pay for TiVo's Recorder Or Settle for Cable's?)

• This one goes straight into the "Huh?" file: HOW OLD IS THE GRAND CANYON? PARK SERVICE WON'T SAY -- Orders to Cater to Creationists Makes National Park Agnostic on Geology.

• That didn't take long: Security Flaws Are Detected in Microsoft's Vista.

• Business 2.0: How to Succeed in 2007.

• Founder of Wikipedia plans search engine to rival Google.

• Why you can't get iPods at a discount.

• Giant plant-eating dinosaur unearthed. (The biggest ever?)

• Via kottke comes this list of free addictive little Web games. (Warning: These are giant time sucks.)

• ABC's Top 5 YouTube videos of the year.

---

MUSIC, BOOKS, MOVIES, TV, FUN!

• RIP James Brown, Godfather of Soul: Some of his more important recordings are discussed here. My friend Rob tells the story of how James Brown saved his bacon in grade school in Reflections on James Brown. (very amusing!)

• Oh Holy Night New Orleans Style. Fabulous version from NBC's Studio 60.

• The extended weekend will give me time to get to Ken Fisher's The Only Three Questions That Count: Investing by Knowing What Others Don't.

• We previously noted John Hodgman's book The Areas of My Expertise. The entire book is now available for free at the iTunes Music Store (amusing as all hell).

• The Mega-Meta-list: The one page that aggregates all of the 2006 lists.

• If you plan on having a drink (or three) on New Year's Eve, consider these suggestions:

- The wines that earned the coveted Delicious!' rating from the WSJ in 2006 (free).

- The Most Expensive Champagnes 2006.

- The (Your Name Here)-Tini.

- Wine Spectator's Top 100 for 2006.

• Take a Quiz: A Year to Remember. (pop up)

• The New York Post, in its inimitable way, notes that the DVD-ISASTERFORMAT HAS PEAKED - THAT'S BAD NEWS FOR STUDIOS.

• Performers who Take the Stage at Midnight: Some of history's landmark live performances have taken place on Dec. 31, but midnight can also be a letdown.

• Pitchfork: Top 50 Albums of 2006.

• Impossible shots and Play of the Day.

• Saddam Hussein escaped!

That's all from what remains a very temperate weekend in the Northeast, where there was no White Christmas, and where New Year's and Presidents' Day aren't forecast to have snow either!

Have a safe and healthy New Year's Eve!