Maven: Too Much Housing Hope

How do I know? Because I've compared the breathless declarations of an instant return to fine real estate fettle with the daring display of common insight by the Financial Times.

The article's headline is an appropriately tempered "Existing-home sales edge higher in US." But it's the lead that gets to the heart of the matter: "Sales of existing US homes rose slightly in November, though activity in the crucial southern market remained depressed in a sign that the nationwide market has yet to reach its nadir."

Many members of the business media are, like The Business Press Maven, based in the Northeast, which did OK in the latest survey. But the future of new-home sales appears to be centered where we ain't -- the South and Southwest, which still appear weak.

Adding to this small countermovement of basic common sense is TheStreet.com's own Nicholas Yulico. I usually hesitate to highlight an article from TheStreet.com, if only to avoid charges of favoritism. But in some cases, such as this one, I can't help it.

Every down market has those brief blips up, the fools' rallies that trap the ever-hopeful. And homebuilder stocks have, Yulico points out, rallied some from their lows of late. But in the South and Southwest, he rightly says, watch those land charges. A lot have been taken of late, but even those companies that have been taking them (hello, Hovnanian) are assuming there will be none going forward.