Maven: Too Much Housing Hope

Reuters also ushers in a new era of stability, at least on paper (or, more accurately, in pixels), with what passes as reason: Wall Street was wrong, so it is right. "The National Association of Realtors said the pace of existing home sales rose 0.6 percent in November to a 6.28 million-unit annual rate, defying Wall Street forecasts for sales to ease slightly and providing the latest suggestion that housing activity was stabilizing after a steep drop." The AP even adds vestiges of housing-market insanity, disguised as a qualifier: "However, [analysts] cautioned not to expect a sharp rebound."

Even the 800-pound gorilla of conventional thought, The Wall Street Journal, got in on the revival act right there in a headline: "Home Sales Bode Well for Big Picture: Second Consecutive Rise Points to Limited Fallout From Market Slump in 2007." By only the fifth paragraph, we are in the thick of an imaginary scenario: " If the housing slump is indeed bottoming out and starts to reverse itself in the months ahead, it would..."

With that bit of pretend and excitement from the most influential and stately business paper in the nation, I guess it's time for full disclosure. Few have benefited as much from the housing market as I, so every fiber of my being wants it back.

In the mid-1990s, I bought a modest two-bedroom apartment in Greenwich Village with a fireplace and river view you had to squint to enjoy. By the end of that decade, I had put my large two-bedroom apartment with expansive river views on the market and more than tripled my investment. I used the profits to buy a three-bedroom house in an expensive though self-consciously understated New York City suburb -- and my investment in that has more than doubled in value. If this insanity would only continue, I'll be typing out this column from a mansion in the Hollywood Hills before too long. But -- damn reality -- it won't.