Agonies, Ecstasies in Stocks for 2006

For all of the complexity that appears to underpin investing, very often success is a matter of simply mastering the art of the obvious. The big trends that made a lot of money over the past year were so clear, in fact, that it's a wonder we aren't all billionaires already.

It was plain as day, was it not, that shares of larger companies were due for a recovery in 2006 after six and a half years of bullying by the shares of smaller companies? That the price of oil would collapse after peaking three times at around $75 by midyear? That shares of homebuilders and banks would rally in celebration once the Federal Reserve stopped its campaign of raising interest rates this summer?

Sheesh, come on: Where's your Porsche?

It's my job to make certain that you see the big events unfold in real time and understand quickly how to benefit from them. And for the most part this year, I was not entirely unhelpful. But you be the judge: This week, let me update you on the ideas that I provided in 2006 and tell you whether it's time to add shares of the winners or take losses on losers. Then next week, I'll scan the horizon for the big surprises and themes of 2007.