Agonies, Ecstasies in Stocks for 2006

On May 31, I reviewed the fading fortunes of film amid the rise in digital cameras, but like most technology stocks this year, my recommendations did not develop well, with camera-chip makers Micron Technology (MU Quote) rising only 2% and OmniVision Technologies (OVTI Quote) rising 55% in short order, only to crash and sink 33%. Camera chips have gotten to be such a commodity-oriented business that it's hard even for companies with patent protections to charge enough to make a reasonable profit.

On June 14, amid a broad selloff in the market, I sought out some value-investing pros for ideas on companies to buy at good discounts. We got some great ideas that still have impressive outlooks: Matt Feshbach recommended Ambassadors International (AMIE Quote), which is up 100% since, and Tom Kahn recommended Hologic (HOLX Quote), up 21%. My 2007 target for Ambassadors, now trading at $48, is $60.

On June 28, I made my absolute worst call of the year, suggesting that the outlook for large technology stocks was abysmal. I had a lot of good reasons, but they all turned out to be wrong. A big turnaround was right around the corner. Microsoft (MSFT Quote) went on to rise by 27%, while Oracle (ORCL Quote) rose 16%, Dell (DELL Quote) rose 3% and Intel (INTC Quote) rose 5%. (Microsoft is the publisher of MSN Money.)

On July 5, I followed up that fiasco by asserting that Boeing (BA Quote) shares would fall from the sky as troubles with the building of its new Dreamliner 787 aircraft became evident. That looked like a good call for a while, as Boeing shares slipped a gear. But ultimately the Chicago-based aircraft manufacturer has proved me and other skeptics wrong by pressing forward with no delays so far. I still have my doubts, but for now it looks like a bravura performance by one of our great industrial icons. Shares are up 11% since my recommendation to sell.