Transport Drama Revs Up

"This is important, and worth noting, but November's better-than-expected retail sales is also important," says Lonski. As long as consumer spending remains robust, the decline in shipping demand could be a hiccup in the economic Goldilocks tale. Only if demand isn't strong enough to improve the balance between businesses' inventories and sales, "slippage in freight volumes might be one of many developments that point to a slower economy," he says.

So, weakness in the Transports average may likewise be short-lived.

"There is nothing in the Dow Theory that says which average has to go to a new high first," says Louise Yamada, of Louise Yamada Technical Research Advisors, who notes the market is not showing many bearish divergences. The ratio of new highs vs. new lows matched a 2005 peak last week, which was "nice confirmation of the new highs," Yamada says, adding that the total volume of buying also has confirmed the rally.

But the veteran technician notes many stocks are starting to "digest their gains," and it wouldn't be surprising to see the market consolidate in the near future. She shies away from tagging any small declines as tops, because most stocks, including FedEx, she says, are still in an uptrend.

In sum, the Transports and the inventories are worth watching, but not worth panicking over.