Big Week for Retail

3. So far, the word is many retailers aren't slashing and burning to pump up sales. Sure, there are aggressive promotions out there, but top-line numbers -- on both a weekly and monthly basis -- are holding up. That tells me that these promotions were planned in advance and aren't the result of panic. If retailers panic this week and change course quickly -- which I don't think is likely to happen on a wholesale basis -- there's little doubt margins will get crushed and profits will suffer.

For investors who are long retail, the numbers so far certainly haven't given you any reason to get out, and the fundamentals have essentially remained the same, furthering the case to stay in. However, for those who have yet to get into the sector, it is best to wait until the final holiday numbers come in before committing any new money.

Bottom line: The retail sector is holding up nicely so far this holiday season. But we need the shoppers to show up and spend this week to make it a holiday shopping season to remember.

>To order reprints of this article, click here: Reprints