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Mary Ann Bartels, chief market analyst at Merrill Lynch, agrees the commodity bull market is still in effect. Crude and gold "underwent a cyclical correction and are breaking out," she wrote in her weekly report. Bartels believes energy stocks have more room to rally as seasonal trends say energy stocks rally during the winter months, and investors may chase the sector to window-dress their year-end performance.

The stock market is discounting the oil-price trend and the energy rally, as Exxon Mobil(XOM Quote) and Chevron(CVX Quote) marked new all-time highs again Monday.

So, while the markets watch the data, evidence of the biggest threat to low interest rates and the bullish stock market might be a revival of the speculative commodities trade.