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The Fed may be jawboning about inflation, but rising oil and commodities prices could be a danger for stocks, bonds and the economy if they resume their upward moves after Monday's breather.

"The price of oil over the past two weeks has firmed up, and it is flirting with $63 per barrel," says Art Hogan, chief market analyst at Jefferies & Co. "This is a negative catalyst for the market."

From a technical perspective, there are reasons to believe oil prices could continue to go up. Open interest expanded last week in futures trading as oil climbed $3.51 per barrel. Also, bullish consensus in the oil futures market hit a two-year low in the first week of November, a contrarian signal of an upturn to come. Other commodities also are rising. Gold gained 1% last week as the dollar fell, and the Journal of Commerce industrial metals index neared its all-time high, as the Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index hit a new all-time high.

"Wage gains may continue for a while, and further upside to commodity prices will not help the case for lower interest rates," wrote Thomas McManus, chief U.S. equities strategist at Banc of America Securities, who further noted that "strong metals prices have historically been a problem for stocks and may interfere with current P/E multiple valuations for stocks."