Pfizer Gropes for Answers

David Risinger of Merrill Lynch isn't sure Pfizer will ever be able to replace Lipitor, the top-selling drug on the planet. In 2005, Lipitor produced $12.2 billion in revenue, and this year, Pfizer is forecasting $13 billion.

Risinger, who doesn't own shares, cut his rating to neutral from buy. He wrote in a research report that he doesn't see existing drugs, including some newer ones that Pfizer had been touting, or experimental medications offsetting the sales that will vanish when Lipitor loses U.S. patent protection.

By 2012, he predicts the company will have earnings of $1.87 a share. This year, earnings are expected to be $2.05.

During the next few years, Pfizer's results also will be hit by patent expirations on several big products besides Lipitor. A research report by UBS Securities says Pfizer's sales based on current drugs could drop from an estimated $47 billion in 2006 to $32 billion in 2012. Assuming every experimental drug reaches the market -- "highly unlikely" says the report -- Pfizer would add only $14 billion in revenue by 2012.

UBS analyst Roopesh Patel is keeping his neutral rating on Pfizer, telling clients that he was lowering his EPS estimates for 2009 and 2010 and is "much more nervous" about 2011 and 2012. Patel doesn't own shares, but his firm has an investment banking relationship with the company.