Maven: Preaching the GDP Gospel

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Perhaps I've been too lenient with the business media on the issue. Maybe, in threatening to run my car over their typing fingers, splash a dirty martini in their faces and, most gruesomely, even turn them into English professors, I've let them off easy.

But it happened again this week. Of all the business media's hurtful habits that harm investors, their inability to write about the Commerce Department's initial gross domestic product reports as what it is -- an initial, frequently revised number -- is the most durable. And revenge will ultimately be mine.

You can catch the latest batch of corrective headlines anywhere in the past day or two: "Economy stronger than first thought in third quarter" or "New Statistics Show a Gently Slowing Economy."

But a month ago -- as I pointed out, so upset that I was barely able to control my anger, even my bladder -- we got a whole round of articles about how we were headed into a recession.

Premature Conclusions

That's because initially (see that word: initially), the government released an alarming figure. It said that the economy had grown at a near-anemic rate of 1.6%. Don't sweat it, wrote The Business Press Maven, just strap yourself in for the upward revision, which is de rigueur.

How far back in history do we have to go for proof? Well, all the way to the second quarter, where there was eventually a revision from 2.5% to 2.9%.