Apple Shares Shine On

"The more people you get exposed to the Apple experience, I think, the better," Hoopes says. "It's all about getting people in the stores. The real earnings power for the Apple stock is a function of CPU (desktops and notebooks) share gains."

Hoopes does not own shares of Apple and his firm doesn't do banking.

Yet it's the presence of new products -- or lack thereof -- that might go a long way in determining the fate of Apple shares after the new year. Neff noted that in the first parts of 2003, 2004 and 2005, Apple shares were driven by significant product announcements and outperformed the market.

But absent major product releases in early 2002 and 2006, Apple stock underperformed the market in the first half of those particular years.

Early indications are that 2007 will deliver: The company's rumored iPhone, the Leopard operating system, new video iPods and iTV, which will allow people to wirelessly access music and videos stored on their computer on their home entertainment systems, are all expected to appear sometime next year.

After a meeting with several Apple executives, Neff wrote that while the company did not give specifics, "it highlighted that iTV fits within Apple's vision of the digital living room and desire to simplify consumers' use of content.

"To that extent, it appears that iTV's impact on video could be similar to what iPod was for music."

If that happens, a share price of $100 may soon seem like one of Wall Street's great bargains.

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