BitTorrent Bubbles Up

As for the Napster analogy, I'd argue that BitTorrent is in some ways the opposite of Napster. When Napster fell, the supposed lesson was that its technology, in helping to spawn the free downloading of copyrighted music, doomed its financial prospects.

But in retrospect, that was the smaller part of a bigger story. The real reason Napster failed was that the record labels chose to stamp out a technology that could have helped them drive up profits. They found a gift horse, and smothered it.

Movie studios have had every chance to take BitTorrent to court, but they haven't tried. Instead, they've taken on sites offering pirated content and signed deals with BitTorrent. Maybe that's because, this time around, they realize that blaming BitTorrent for piracy is like blaming DVD disk manufacturers for pirated copies of Hollywood films that are commonplace abroad.

The bigger obstacles facing BitTorrent aren't potential lawsuits, but that many potential users still harbor misperceptions of what BitTorrent can really do. Many in particular are tentative of allowing others to use their Internet connections to upload movies onto their PCs.

Another barrier is that BitTorrent could be bought out by a larger company first. It's always hard to read the mind of Google's management, but they must be at least considering a BitTorrent buyout, if for no other reason than it would completely sew up for them the emerging market of online video.

But if BitTorrent can work out the kinks and make it public, it could make current broadcasting even less relevant than it is now, and be a boon for Internet service providers, online advertisers and storage companies. It just might be that big.