BJ's Land a Buyout Lure

Applying a seven-times multiple to that adjusted EBITDA stream (roughly where the stock is currently trading now) and adding back the approximate $750 million of real estate, the stock is worth at least $37.

Value-Creating Moves Needed

There are several ways the company can realize this real estate value. BJ's could sell the entire real estate portfolio in a sale-leaseback transaction and then distribute the profits to shareholders in the form of a special dividend or share buybacks.

The company also could recapitalize itself by keeping the real estate, then levering up the balance sheet to buy back shares -- a method that CBRL Group(CBRL Quote), owner of the Cracker Barrel stores, pursued last year.

Cathy Maloney, a BJ's spokeswoman, declined to comment on these potential scenarios or a possible company buyout.

She says the company's board had previously looked at doing a sale-leaseback, but they "have a bias against doing that."

"They want to maintain an investment grade rating. We wouldn't want to put that into risk by taking on more lease obligations," Maloney says.

BJ's has about $130 million of minimum lease payments due next year, excluding the 10 new stores expected to open this year. It's questionable whether doing a sale-leaseback would hurt the company's expansion efforts, as Maloney suggests.

"Companies like Best Buy (BBY Quote) and CVS (CVS Quote) own virtually no real estate assets and have great credit ratings," says Christopher Volk, CEO of Spirit Finance(SFC Quote), a REIT that specializes in sale-leasebacks.

A better case can be made that the real estate the company owns is going to waste right now, since it has absolutely no value in the stock market. Unless the company wakes up to this fact, the quickest and easiest way for shareholder value to be restored looks to be an outright sale of the company.

And a buyout of at least $37 sure could be reasonable.