Which Stocks Could Win, Lose in Election

My baseline outcome of a sweep will probably result in an immediate market swoon and a great deal of economic uncertainty at a time when growth is flailing. A split of the House and Senate would have a more muted impact.

Especially vulnerable sectors in a Democratic "tsunami" would be energy (Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH Quote)), Big Pharma (Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (PPH Quote)) and defense (PowerShares Aerospace & Defense (PPA Quote)).

Also, tobaccos (Altria (MO Quote)) and high-end retailers (Polo Ralph Lauren (RL Quote), Tiffany (TIF Quote) and Retail HOLDRs (RTH Quote)) will likely be pressured.

By contrast, environmental-related securities (Johnson Controls (JCI Quote), Clean Harbors (CLHB Quote), Medis Technologies (MDTL Quote) and PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW Quote)) and government-sponsored agencies (Freddie Mac (FRE Quote) and Fannie Mae (FNM Quote)) will get a lift.

In either outcome (a Democratic win in either the House or Senate, or both), the net impact on the equity market doesn't appear to be positive.