My baseline outcome of a sweep will probably result in an immediate market swoon and a great deal of economic uncertainty at a time when growth is flailing. A split of the House and Senate would have a more muted impact.
Especially vulnerable sectors in a Democratic "tsunami" would be energy (Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH Quote)), Big Pharma (Pharmaceutical HOLDRs (PPH Quote)) and defense (PowerShares Aerospace & Defense (PPA Quote)). Also, tobaccos (Altria (MO Quote)) and high-end retailers (Polo Ralph Lauren (RL Quote), Tiffany (TIF Quote) and Retail HOLDRs (RTH Quote)) will likely be pressured. By contrast, environmental-related securities (Johnson Controls (JCI Quote), Clean Harbors (CLHB Quote), Medis Technologies (MDTL Quote) and PowerShares WilderHill Clean Energy (PBW Quote)) and government-sponsored agencies (Freddie Mac (FRE Quote) and Fannie Mae (FNM Quote)) will get a lift. In either outcome (a Democratic win in either the House or Senate, or both), the net impact on the equity market doesn't appear to be positive.- Loading Comments...
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| Dow Jones | S&P 500 | NASDAQ | 10-Year Note | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10,270.47 | 1,093.48 | 2,167.88 | 34.29 |
Oil *
75.55
|
|
UP
73.00
|
UP
6.24
|
UP
18.86
|
DOWN
0.17
|
10 Yr
3.43%
SPDR Gold
109.74
|
|
+0.72%
|
+0.57%
|
+0.88%
|
-0.49%
|
Data delayed 20 minutes |














