Apple's Margin Massage

Tortora says the iPod standard price cut was the first since the hit music player debuted in 2002 and may well have been a pre-emptive move against Microsoft(MSFT Quote), which will launch its Zune music player later in the year.

"We think the combination of these factors adds risk to Apple's December quarter, falling short of investor expectations," he wrote in a note to clients published this week. Prudential does not have an investment banking relationship with Apple.

Over the last two years, Apple shares have typically swung about 7% or 8% either way in the aftermath of earnings announcements. Given the current level of volatility and pricing of options, the soon-to-be-reported quarter isn't likely to be an exception, says Stacey Briere Gilbert, chief options strategist at Susquehanna Financial Group.

Apple's Options

The biggest recent blip in the Cupertino, Calif.-based company's share run-up was caused by concerns that CEO Steve Jobs could be forced to resign because of his role in the company's possibly flawed procedures for awarding stock options.

But most analysts see that as a low-probability event, despite recent CEO departures at technology companies including McAfee(MFE Quote) and CNet Networks(CNET Quote).

Jobs said earlier this month that although he was aware of favorable grants, he didn't benefit personally from them and "was unaware of the accounting implications."

"We continue to believe Apple's internal investigation was sufficient and Steve Jobs, while aware of options backdating, was not aware of the accounting impact," says Piper Jaffray analyst Gene Munster, whose company does not have an investment banking relationship with Apple.