Five Best Stocks for '07

The problem is 2007. The solution -- for investors -- is a specific kind of blue-chip stock: large-market capitalization, predictably strong earnings growth, a reputation as a safe haven in a risky market and strong exposure to long-term global growth trends.

In this column, I'll explain why and give you five names that fit the bill right now.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) provided a concise summary of the high degree of uncertainty surrounding next year's economic results in its semiannual outlook on the global economy, released on Sept. 13.

Here's the most likely scenario for 2007, according to the IMF. Thanks to strong growth from China (projected at 10% in 2007 after 10% growth in 2006) and India (7.3% in 2007 after 8.3% in 2006), the global economy is likely to grow 4.9% in 2007. That would be just a slight dip from the 5.1% projected growth in 2006 -- certainly good news for investors globally.

The developed economies don't fare quite as well, but growth there still isn't anything to worry about. Growth in the U.S. economy, the IMF projects, will slow to 2.9% in 2007 from 3.4% in 2006. Europe will slow more rapidly, to 2% in 2007 from 2.4% in 2006, as will Japan, to 2.1% in 2007 from 2.7% in 2006. Still, growth under this most likely scenario isn't anything to worry about. It's certainly strong enough to keep corporate earnings perking along just fine.

Spoilers: Houses and Oil

But then the IMF had to go and spoil the party by listing all the things that could go wrong. The souring U.S. real estate market could go from bad to worse, taking U.S. economic growth with it.

How bad does the housing slump have to get before it sends economic growth into a tailspin?