Reasons for a Sweeter Scenario in 2007

These economists are only marginally more pessimistic than the group surveyed by the Journal. On average, these 48 economists are calling for economic growth in the U.S. to drop to an average of 2.5% for the last two quarters of 2006 and the first two quarters of 2007. That would be a significant drop from the average growth of 3.5% over the past four quarters.

And they put the odds of a recession in 2007, on average, at about 26%. That's a big jump from last spring, when this survey put the odds of a recession in 2007 at just 15%.

Economists: Oil Prices Will Drop

But before you decide to jump under the next bandwagon and end it all, consider this part of the Wall Street Journal survey as well: These economists are also projecting oil at $63.91 a barrel -- way down from the $70 to $80 range that marked the top in 2006 -- in June 2007.

That's not a huge decline from the Sept. 8 close at $66.25, but a slide to $64 by June would mark a huge change from expectations that oil was set to climb without a pause straight to $100 a barrel and beyond. A shift in that expectation, even if the change in the actual price of a barrel of oil isn't all that much from current levels, would have huge effects for the stock market and the economy.