Maven: All We Have to Fear Is Hope Itself

The Business Press Maven had just dragged himself in from Warren Buffett's bachelor party (Warren, what happens in Omaha stays in Omaha) when he was greeted by a lead in a cover story of a major business paper this morning that gave him the shakes.

The Business Press Maven, like most natural malcontents and experienced stock traders, prefers a market that is climbing the old wall of worry. In other words: When nerves are frayed and the worst is assumed, I'm ready to buy. But when hope is high and fingers are dutifully crossed for the best-case scenario, I'm taking three steps toward the door.

That's why I got such a shock that the phrase "with a little luck" wormed its slimy little way into an Investor's Business Daily lead about the prospects of a soft landing for the economy.

"A flurry of economic data Thursday offered new evidence that, with a bit of luck, slower growth will cool inflation without driving the U.S. into recession."

A soft landing is, of course, the rarest of economic animals. Pinning too much hope on one is a one-way ticket to financial Palookaville.

And with a little luck? Ugh. That sounds like a lame Paul McCartney song about a teetering economy.

Look, despite my keen predictive powers, I have absolutely no idea whether the economy is headed toward a recession or might skirt one. But as stock traders, we can identify conventional wisdom and play against it, secure in the knowledge that the most widely held assumptions are wrong and eventually will turn.

« Previous Page

1 2 3

Next Page »