Bristol Goes Back to Drawing Board

The analysts doesn't own shares of Bristol-Myers, but his firm says its does, or seeks to do, business with companies mentioned in research reports.

Merrill Lynch analyst David Risinger tells clients that he expects the Apotex case to go to trial. "We assume that the patent is upheld," says Risinger, who has a neutral rating on Bristol-Myers. He doesn't own shares, but his firm has had a noninvestment banking relationship.

Meanwhile, Chris Schott, of Banc of America Securities, says a launch of generic Plavix by Apotex is a "low probability event." Schott, who is neutral on Bristol-Myers, says that "time is on Bristol's side" because the ill-fated settlement process has delayed the potential for generic competition by at least a year.

A return to the courtroom is the most likely scenario, Schott says. Even if Bristol-Myers loses the case, Plavix would be safe from generic competition until late 2008 or early 2009, he says. He doesn't own shares. His firm says it seeks to do or does business with companies covered in research reports.

However, even if the Apotex challenge is dispatched, Bristol-Myers and Sanofi-Aventis still must deal with three other generic-drug companies, which have filed U.S. patent challenges against Plavix.

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