Cramer's 'Mad Money' Recap: Make Your Own Upside Surprise
07/27/06 - 08:29 PM EDT
TheStreet.com Staff
Click here for an archive of Cramer's "Mad Money" recaps.
"Aren't you tired of hearing the phrase 'better than expected?' " Jim Cramer asked "Mad Money" viewers Thursday. "I'm sick of hearing that when I don't own the stock. "Don't I want to know that before it's 'better than expected' so I can own the stock?" he asked. Cramer said that even now when he hears that phrase, which he dubbed BTE, he thinks, "Thanks a lot, pal. I can't make any money off that." Cramer then promised viewers that he would show them how to create their own upside surprise. "I'm going to look in my crystal ball at Valero Energy (VLO Quote - Cramer on VLO - Stock Picks)," which reports earnings next week. He said he saw a headline from that same day in the future: " 'Valero Energy Reports Much BTE and Boosts Forecasts.' I just deduced that headline from the facts that are already out there. I will give you the schematic of my mind," he said. Cramer was clear about one thing: He didn't have any insider information. Rather, he had been listening to conference calls of the other companies in the sector. In particular, he named ConocoPhillips(COP Quote - Cramer on COP - Stock Picks), which had announced that worldwide refining margins, or the crack spread, had widened. "Conoco is the third biggest refiner," he said. "Valero is the first, and the spread for Valero is going to be even larger ... because it uses cheaper stock."
The other reasons he gave as to why the company would beat expectations were: At the end of June, the company indicated it would smash the consensus forecasts for the second quarter; no new refineries are being built by the competition, gasoline prices are up; and the Wall Street analysts covering the stock are "stupid."
He elaborated on the analyst comment, saying that despite the improved outlook by management, the analysts at the major Wall Street banks had steadfastly refused to increase their earnings estimates.
RSS
