TechWeek: Tech Can't Win for Losing

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke's dovish remarks this week sparked a satisfying rally. But investing in technology for the next few months will be more like riding a roller coaster than an up escalator as economic news ebbs and flows.

"We should be careful about extrapolating from a bit of good news," says Alan Gayle, senior investment strategist for Trustco, which has $70 billion under management. "I think his comments were not negative, but the market should not construe them as a signal."

Gayle says investors should focus hard on economic news over the next few months and realize that the markets will react to it with a good deal of volatility. "We are going to be very data driven," he says.

Late next week, for example, we should get a preliminary look at GDP data, with details on consumer spending coming the following Monday. If the GDP numbers look very strong, as exemplified by higher housing starts, cyclical stocks, including tech issues, are likely to take a hit because the market will interpret the strength as evidence that the Fed's policy of cooling the economy isn't working.

On the other hand, if the numbers are too weak, as evidenced by a drop in durable goods orders, techs will also take a hit because investors fear that it would signal a slowdown in consumer spending. And consumers, of course, have done much to keep tech's top lines growing for the last few years.

Although this sounds like the classic lose-lose situation, it isn't -- at least not quite, says Gayle. "There's a narrow band in which tech stocks win. If growth continues, but slows, and the Fed is allowed to pause, cyclically sensitive stocks should find footing."

Meanwhile, Dell's(DELL) apparently collapsing margins raise the question of what the PC maker should do now that price cuts aren't working. A variation of that problem faces Intel(INTC) and Advanced Micro Devices(AMD), which appear to be in the midst of a nasty price war. None of these companies is going to disappear, but the margin pressure is unpleasantly reminiscent of the fratricidal price wars that devastated the hard-drive industry.