Cleaning Out Uncovers a Few Gems

This is going to startle you, but today, I have no deep thoughts. No philosophical epiphanies. No life-altering proclamations.

No, today is just potpourri day. A day where I clean up some topics I never seem to get to. A day where I highlight some things I've run across that may interest you. A day where you and I can put our minds on "idle" and just absorb some recent events.

Item #1: Gurus, Part I

As a few long-time readers know, I follow exactly zero market sages religiously. Mainly because I think forecasting the market is silly. In effect, "gurus" just don't exist.

That said, I do think there are some folks who have credible insights into the market, and I do read -- although not necessarily follow -- what they have to say.

In that vein, I subscribe to only one newsletter, and that's the one put out by Robert Drach, which I've discussed in a previous column.

However, I recently added another, this one by James O. Rohrbach. Read on for James' recent email to me:

Gary:

I discovered you when one of my clients wrote. "I read Gary Smith, Technical Analyst for TheStreet.com, religiously. In October of 1998 Smith wrote that, of all the gurus he has read or knows, Robert Drach is worth noting." Well Robert F. Drach is a personal friend of mine, and he has written a nice endorsement for me that you can read on my Web Site at: http://www.investment-models.com.

I have been timing the market in real-time for 30 years, and I have avoided every Major Drop in the Market including 1987, which made some people instant gurus.

This same client had some nice things to say about me, "BTW, the one thing that impresses me most about you, is you have been completely honest. You do not forecast the market, rather you let the market tell you what to do, that tells me you are tops in your field. Forecasting is a fool's game, really, and I know that you are well aware of that fact, and I respect your candor on that subject. You know what they say, ' those who say they don't know, know :-).'"

My stock answer when someone asks me what the market will do in the future has always been, " I don't know." ...

James O. Rohrbach
Registered Investment Advisor
President
Investment Models, Inc.

Now, in the interest of fairness, James has been sending me his newsletter gratis. However, I do like what I've read, and if you check out his Web site, I think you'll find a substantial track record.

Now, here's the interesting part. James concluded his email to me with this missive:

By the way, I am 69 years old and I am actively seeking an individual or a Company willing to carry on my good work so I can really retire. Any ideas??

So, folks, I throw it out to you. I know there are quite a few readers who like to write and love the market. James has issued an open-ended invitation to take on his business. If you think you qualify -- and please, don't deluge the man with mindless emails -- then here's his address. Good luck! [e-mail]

Item #2: Gurus, Part II

As I've often said, there may well be things about the market that I just don't understand. And even if exposed to, I still might not understand. But, just because I don't understand something, doesn't mean it's not worth looking into. This next email kind of falls into this category, but maybe many of you will grasp its implications immediately. Regardless, the site is certainly worth looking at.

Dear Gary:

Fundamental questions often raised are: How to have a global view of the market? How to measure the cooperative behavior of traders? What are the correlations [that exist] in the stock market?

We are physicists working on complex systems. We have a very long experience on sorting out data and subtle correlations. Since the market dynamics is a paradigm of complexity, we have applied our methods and techniques to financial data.

On our website (www.market-topology.com), we present the results of our research: we put into evidence the natural structure of the U.S. stock market! This structure (which is updated every month) gives the most correlated pairs of stocks, and thus reflects how stocks behave together!

Have a look! We believe that Physics can provide new and powerful concepts in Finance.

Dr. Nicolas Vandewalle,
on behalf of the market-topology team.

Item #3: Motley Fool Check-in Time

Is there anyone more opposite in style to GBS than The Motley Fool? I'll give them this, though: when they're hot, they're hot. And when they're not? Well, they're very not. Last I checked they were down over 27% year to date. Still, they remain loyal to their holdings of Amazon (AMZN), eBay (EBAY), AOL (AOL) and At Home (ATHM). Should be an interesting second half of the year for them.

Item #4: This Market Is Easy! But for Whom?

Someone must be having a banner year, right? But, I've heard of only one person -- a daytrader who has a unique approach, and a lot of capital behind him -- who's absolutely killing it. Every other phone call or email I get bemoans the same thing: this is one tough $#%#$@ market. So take solace that it's not just you.

Item #5: The Show Must Go On

With an ego like mine, you think I could stay away from TV? Nah, look for the Chartman to make a return to the tube in late August. Details in the next few weeks, when I know air times and such.

Item Last: No Column Monday

I'm taking a day off. Riding some roller coasters. Reading Lance Armstrong's autobiography. Drinking fruity drinks with umbrellas sticking out of them. All, so I can come back fresh and ready to tackle this monster they call the market!