Bounce Takes a Header

Israel's conflict with Lebanon, possible U.N. sanctions against Iran, and earnings that hint the end of double-digit profit growth is near pushed market anxiety to the tipping point Wendesday. The turmoil undid any goodwill generated by Tuesday's afternoon rally and provided a convenient backdrop for a stock market selloff.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 121 points, or 1.1%, to close at 11,013.18 while the S&P 500 fell 1.1% to 1258.60. Keeping with its year-to-date trend of underperformance, the Nasdaq Composite suffered worst Wednesday, sliding 1.81% to 2090.24.

"The bounce [from the June lows] has run out of steam," says RealMoney.com contributor Barry Ritholtz, chief market strategist of Ritholtz Research and Analytics and president of Ritholtz Capital Partners, a New York-based hedge fund.

After losing 7.6% from its peak on May 9, the S&P 500 had bounced back 5% through the end of last week from its June 13 low of 1223.69. Ritholtz believes that bounce has run its course and a retest of the major indicies' June 13 lows may now be in order. The S&P and the Dow are still up 2.8% from their respective June lows while the Nasdaq is only up 0.85% from its June lows.

A successful retest of those levels -- of about 10,706 for the Dow, 1224 for the S&P and 2072.50 for the Comp -- is the most likely scenario, but is certainly not guaranteed. A hint of a more serious decline (and bear market) could be seen Wednesday as many exchange traded funds and indices broke through their 200-day moving averages.

The broken down include the S&P 500, the S&P 500 SPDR Trust (SPY Quote), the Amex Securities Broker/Dealer Index (XBD Quote), the Nasdaq 100 Trust(QQQQ Quote), the iShares Russell 2000 Index (IWM Quote) and the Mid-Cap SPDR Trust (MDY Quote).

The iShares MSCI Emerging Markets Index is hovering above its 200-day moving average, but overnight trading could easily bring it down if international bourses follow the U.S. markets.