This column was originally published on RealMoney on July 11 at 10:53 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.
When does it matter when you are overbought? When you have a train explosion in Bombay, that's when. If you are oversold, we send India down and cordon it off. When you are overbought -- and we are still way overbought -- you get the U.S. market rolling over.
Of course, Bombay is simply not significant to the earnings estimates of Bristol-Myers (BMY - Get Report), my endless example of what you need to focus on when these extraneous exogenous events occur.
Why do I say the train incident doesn't matter? Because tomorrow's wires will not have this story, and this market's institutional memory is about 10 minutes. What's more important to watch is the dangerous way that stocks are starting to encroach on their hard-won gains from after the last Fed meeting. What does that encroachment say? It says that earnings woes are already supplanting Fed relief. Hence the endless increases in Coca-Cola (KO - Get Report), Altria (MO - Get Report) and UnitedHealth Group (UNH - Get Report), which all have become horses.What will get sold on this news out of India besides the indices? Why, tech, of course. It will get hit today, again, I believe. The SOX? Feeble here, and there's probably worse to come. At the time of publication, Cramer was long Bristol-Myers Squibb, Altria and UnitedHealth Group.