Flash Seeks Four-Bit Harmony

Compare that with Hynix Semiconductor, which rang up a whopping $1.48 billion in flash sales in 2005, only a year after entering the market using standard NAND flash technology.

Gartner analyst Joe Unsworth says the contrast raises some serious questions about how easy it is to manufacture chips in large volume with Saifun's technology -- and about the prospects of Saifun's next-generation 4-bit flash.

"If you look at [Quimonda] and how they've struggled with 2 bits per cell, I'm a little bit skeptical as to when 4 bits per cell is really going to hit the market," says Unsworth.

Antiestablishment Architecture

A Saifun representative said in an email message that the company can't comment on the business details of its licensees, such as Quimonda, but writes that it is no simple task for a company to come to market with a technology that competes against the established flash architecture.

With Quimonda having announced that it will sell quad NROM chips in the next twelve months however, Saifun says it expects the chipmaker to increase its market share.

Moreover, as the flash industry adopts manufacturing processes that produce smaller chip circuitry, Saifun contends that the standard "floating gate" flash architecture will reach limitations.

In order to provide 4-bit flash memory, Saifun says flash suppliers will have no choice but to adopt its quad NROM technology.

Manufacturing issues could also blunt the impact of M-Systems' competing 4-bit flash technology. To offer a cost advantage over existing 2-bit flash, analysts say that x4 chips need to be produced with the most advanced manufacturing processes.

But M-Systems has yet to provide any details about who its manufacturing partner will be and what size circuitry its x4 chips will be produced with.

"We are familiar with the competitive environment, and we will target the competitive environment accordingly," says Noam Kedem, M-Systems' marketing VP.