Sirius: One Mel of a Stock

This column was originally published on RealMoney on July 6 at 9:45 a.m. EDT. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers.

Mel's better than XM(XMSR Quote). Period. Does that mean that Sirius'(SIRI Quote) stock is better than XM's? Not unless they merge.

I continue to think that the key to this industry is to have one player. The way that XM is going it will be possible that Sirius does buy XM, but it is also possible that XM could simply diminish in size -- think AOL! -- and Mel wins anyway.

Notice I call Sirius "Mel." That's because when you think of it, before Sirius CEO Mel Karmazin got involved, the joke was all Sirius. XM had the momentum. It had the critical mass. It had the market cap. It looked like it had the better financials.

All of that has changed since Mel got it. Sure he paid up for talent. But that talent has delivered. And Mel has delivered.

As long as XM is out there bleeding, Mel's stock can't make a big move. But in three quarters if Mel keeps up and XM keeps blowing up, we will either get our merger, or XM will not be a factor that crimps the stock of Sirius. It is clear, already, that it does not crimp the Sirius business itself.