Maven: No House Party

Stock quotes in this article: KBH , PHM , TOL , DHI , BZH , RYL , CTX  

This bit of pretzel logic earns The Business Press Maven's dreaded "Back of the Hand" award.

Pick up even the best business publications and they can sound the same way, like enablers. The Wall Street Journal went a common route, writing in an A2 headline, "Softer Housing Sector Is Seen, But Data Don't Point to Collapse." Of course goodness knows, and so does The Business Press Maven, that for investors, utter collapse is better.

Think of the Internet tumble. It was bad, but with nearly every stock in the sector at or near zero, bargains could soon be had. A long slow burn, caused by slowly unfolding demographic and inflation shifts leaves less room for opportunity.

Opportunity, the Journal pointed out in the first section of that same issue, might be big. An article called "Building a Case for KB Home" had a sub-headline that was flagrantly too positive: "Stock Could Be a Steal Amid Housing Slump." That sounds like the hot stock tip spam I get so much of.

Remember, loyal Business Press Maveniettes, how in the wake of the Internet collapse, we saw legions of articles about stocks that were steals because though they had started getting hit, they would offer safe haven because of their strengths.

That's why, for the first time, I'm going to grant a TheStreet.com staffer -- Nick Yulico -- the coveted Business Press Maven "Nod of Approval." It's for a story called Builders Still No Bargain and centers on the hairy fact that builder's profits are being hit by lower home prices and higher land costs that will be expensed in coming years which -- and this is key -- they haven't acknowledged openly yet.

Until such troubles are spoken about openly, a bottom is not in sight.

By the way, before we continue this "adjustment" any further, are any of you gullibles out there interested in a three-floor beauty? Good schools and the neighbors are usually tolerant. Since I can't take it with me, I figure I'm better off with immediate cash.

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A journalist with a background on Wall Street, Marek Fuchs has written the County Lines column for The New York Times for the past five years. He also contributes regular breaking news and feature stories to many of the paper's other sections, including Metro, National and Sports. Fuchs was the editor-in-chief of Fertilemind.net, a financial website twice named "Best of the Web" by Forbes Magazine. He was also a stockbroker with Shearson Lehman Brothers in Manhattan and a money manager. He is currently writing a chapter for a book coming out in early 2007 on a really embarrassing subject. He lives in a loud house with three children.




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