The Real Story: At P.F. Chang's, It's Check Please!

And the stock isn't exactly cheap at 29 times projected 2006 earnings -- an estimated earnings figure that has come down twice in the past two quarters. I still expect earnings to top out at $1.28.

P.F. Chang's Bistro hasn't seen a same-store sales figure north of 2% since April 2005. And the company's Pei Wei restaurants, which Wall Street had glommed onto as a huge growth story, have posted negative same-store sales figures for the first three months of the year.

Win Some, Lose Some
	P.F. Chang's	Restaurant Industry
Price/Earnings	29.5	22.8
PEG ratio	1.3	1.9
Price/Book	3.5	4.6
Price/Sales	1.3	1.6
Net Profit Margin	4.40%	6.20%
Return on Equity	13.10%	16.20%
Dividend Yield	0%	1.50%
Source: Bloomberg, Capital IQ, Hemscott Americas

Six months ago, few on the Street were talking about weak traffic and same-store sales. Now it appears that's all anyone is focused on. I'm not suggesting all the bad news is baked into the stock price, but it will be more difficult to surprise anyone with bad news, as sentiment is already so poor.

There could be some more downside to go if P.F. Chang's can't right itself. However, just as you shouldn't gorge yourself at the dinner table, neither should you on your stocks if you've had a plan. After this scrumptious meal, the fortune cookie says, "Achieved price target means time to move on."