The Real Signs of an Intraday Rally

Editor's note: This column is an update of a portion of the "Mad Money" episode that aired June 7. Click here to read the full Mad Money Recap for that episode.

We've been through a really bad stretch -- a lot of rough days. And I know that every day the market goes down, even just a little, you're sitting there hoping for an intraday rally.

I am here to break you. I'm going to crush that hope. You still can make money on a down day. You still can be proactive on a down day. But you cannot, you must not, hope for an intraday rally, because you probably won't get one. Just witness the sickening decline Wednesday after the session got off to what looked like a decent start. Now, this is not to say that intraday rallies never happen -- and after I explain why you get so few of them, I'll give you what you really need, the skills to call an actual, bona fide rally. But generally, we've got a Muhammad Ali market right now: It's run by the bears, and they not only knock stocks down, they can choose the round in which they will.

Waiting for an intraday rally is like waiting for Godot: It never comes.

Here are the facts that can save you and make you some money. On "Mad Money," we believe in rigor. We use numbers. And numbers tell me this: When the market's down and you think you're seeing a rally, you think you're getting levitation, you get the levitation scene from Ghostbusters, where Bill Murray finds Sigourney Weaver floating four feet above her bed and says, "I want to talk to Dana." Her answer, in demon voice: "There is no "Dana," only Zuul."

That's not a rally, that's Zuul! I know, you think you can predict the rally, you think they're due, but those convictions are wrong! You know what Nietzsche said? Convictions are more dangerous enemies of truth than lies. So let me give you the facts about rallies.