Investing

The Real Story: First-Quarter Report Card

 

In my debut column for TheStreet.com at the beginning of the year, I wrote: "The purpose of this column is to help you increase your investment returns by selectively going against the consensus."

I knew that contrarian picks would surely raise some eyebrows and touch some nerves, as some of the feedback proved (see below).

But I remain convinced that one of the best ways to make money in the market is to zig when others are zagging.

A review of the performance of my first-quarter stock picks bears this out. Over the past three months, I have recommended six longs and six shorts. In total and broken down into longs and shorts, they have beaten the S&P 500, as the accompanying table indicates.

(Results do not include Wednesday's long recommendation of Movado (MOV), although the stock was up more than 3% early Friday after Jim Cramer echoed my bullish comments on "Mad Money" Thursday evening.)

Results are based on closing prices on the day the recommendation was made.

If you bought and sold every one of The Real Story's recommendations on the day they were made, you'd be sitting on a 2.6% gain vs. a 0.4% average gain if you bought or shorted the S&P 500 on those same days.

Keep in mind, The Real Story portfolio is a diverse group of stocks that includes technology, healthcare, retail, utilities, industrials, real estate, financials, restaurants and media. In my opinion there is less risk in that vs. simply owning the S&P 500, as the group is divided evenly between longs and shorts.

The long positions are up 4.2% vs. 1.6% if you bought the S&P on the same day as each of the various recommendations.

The shorts are in the black by 1.8%, even while the S&P has risen by 0.9%.



The Real Story So Far
Beating the S&P, long and short
Stock Story date Recommendation Last * Profit Percentage
LAMR 1/5 Short 52.40 -5.97 -12.9%
BJ 1/10 Short 31.69 -1.99 -6.7%
APPX 1/19 Short 28.25 9.18 24.5% closed 3/9/06
PFCB 1/25 Short 48.83 1.46 2.9%
WBS 1/31 Buy 48.49 1.39 3.0%
ENMC 2/8 Buy 5.15 -0.55 -9.6%
SUNW 2/15 Buy 5.15 0.83 19.2%
ADBE 2/27 Short 36.33 2.86 7.3% closed 3/23/06
ELN 3/6 Buy 14.76 2.06 16.2%
SCG 3/10 Buy 39.51 -0.56 -1.4%
BOOM 3/14 Buy 35.77 2.83 8.6%
JOE 3/23 Short 61.75 -0.80 -1.8%
Real Story Portfolio 2.6%
* as of close 3/30
Source: Thomson Financial

The biggest winner was a recommended short of American Pharmaceutical Partners(APPX) on Jan. 19. The position was closed on March 9 for a 24.5% gain. We also currently have a 21.5% winner in Sun Microsystems (SUNW). I'm still looking for a $6 price target on Sun. Investors are also looking at double-digit gains in Elan(ELN), while Dynamic Materials (BOOM) is up over 9%.

TheStreet Premium Services

Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS:
Trade right alongside a Wall Street pro — enjoy access to his Charitable Trust portfolio and be sent trade alerts BEFORE he makes a move. Learn More
OptionsProfits
OptionsProfits:
Get 50+ trade ideas a week from the industry's top options experts. Plus — exclusive commentary on market trends and essential trading tools. Learn More
Real Money
Real Money:
Our team of professional Wall Street Pros — including Jim Cramer, Doug Kass, and Nicholas Vardy — delivers intelligent analysis, timely trade ideas, and colorful commentary. Learn More
Stocks Under $10
Stocks Under $10:
Break into the market with small- and mid-cap stocks... all $10 or less! David Peltier tells you exactly which low-priced stocks he's buying and selling. Learn More
To begin commenting right away, you can log in below using your Disqus, Facebook, Twitter, OpenID or Yahoo login credentials. Alternatively, you can post a comment as a "guest" just by entering an email address. Your use of the commenting tool is subject to multiple terms of service/use and privacy policies - see here for more details.
blog comments powered by Disqus
Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
12,419.86 1,313.32 2,837.36 16.25
Oil *
103.00
DOWN
160.83
DOWN
19.10
DOWN
33.63
DOWN
1.06
10 Yr
1.62%
SPDR Gold
151.91
-1.28%
-1.43%
-1.17%
-6.12%
Data delayed 20 minutes

Top Stories and Tools

Articles From

After the Bell

Before the Bell

Booyah! Newsletter

Midday Bell

TheStreet Top 10 Stories

Winners & Losers

We respect your privacy.
Podcasts

Connect with TheStreet