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'RealMoney' Radio Recap: The Mercurial Market
03/01/06 - 05:41 PM EST
Gold will never fall below $500 again, Turk said, arguing that the world is at the beginning of a major inflationary period. Turk said the dollar is dropping against gold. For example, he said that you can buy the same amount of crude with an ounce of gold as you could 50 years ago, but that it takes many more dollars. All currencies are sinking, Turk said. Even if the dollar rises against other currencies, it doesn't mean that it will rise against the precious metal, he added, pointing out that gold rose against all major currencies last year, alongside the greenback.
The Bigger Picture
Tobias Levkovich, chief U.S. equities strategist at CitigroupC, joined Task to talk about the bigger market picture. Task has been saying for weeks that the market is going through a change in leadership, away from momentum groups that have led for the last 18 months. Levkovich agreed. "It's the same kind of thing we saw in the tech bubble period," Levkovich said, adding that extreme flows of money were going into areas like foreign equities at levels that are not sustainable. "I'm really not interested in buying yesterday's winners," said Levkovich. The Citigroup strategist said he's not bearish but would steer clear of yesterday's winners, focusing instead on broad-based industrial companies with a lot of exposure to many end-products. Levkovich said it's a good environment for capital spending. In terms of market sentiment, Levkovich said that as an aggregate, the market is not very excitable. But there are still certain areas of the market in which one can find very aggressive sentiment. He cited GoogleGOOG as an example. "Part of it goes back to the conversation we had about momentum," Levkovich said. "In the case of Google, every one rushed in with hot money ... and then everyone pulled out at the same time." Levkovich said that it's still a great company and that Citigroup analysts are still bullish on the name but that it was ripe for profit-taking. Citigroup owns Google stock. A caller wanted to know if Task would recommend ViroPharmaVPHM or Pain TherapeuticsPTIE. Task said that he prefers ViroPharma only because the company is profitable, but he warned that "a lot of these biotech companies are one-drug companies." "If they have one bad trial the stock will get hammered," Task said. In order to lessen risk, he suggested checking out a biotech mutual fund or a fund with biotech exposure.Aaron Task says that stocks took a hit on reports of slow growth, higher inflation and Google torpor.
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