When you get unanimous opinion about something, the market usually goes in the other direction, Aaron Task, co-executive editor of TheStreet.com told "RealMoney" radio show listeners Wednesday. Task is filling in for host Jim Cramer this week.
So it didn't surprise him too much that stocks rose despite the fact that a host of market strategists have suggested that the market is topping, an opinion that sends out bearish signals. Moreover, the day's economic data make a case that the Federal Reserve may not have many rate hikes left, which would be good for stocks. Task pointed out that while the consumer price index rose by 0.7%, higher than the expected 0.5% gain, the core reading, excluding food and energy costs, rose only 0.22%, in line with Wall Street estimates. The core is all the Fed cares about, he said. Moreover, Task pointed out that oil prices were down and that crude inventories have increased. While this could be negative for energy prices, it would keep overall inflation readings low, he said. He said the decision of Fed Vice Chairman Roger Ferguson to step down effective April 28 has yet to have an impact on the market. However, Task said that Ferguson has been an opponent of inflation targeting and that we'll see if his departure leads the Fed toward targets. The European Central Bank has inflation targets, Task said, adding that targets could lock the Fed into a course regardless of factors not taken into account by the inflation target formula.
Task said that when it's time to get defensive in the market, there are a number of factors to look at before picking stocks. These include a high return on equity, low P/E ratios and low debt ratios.
He also added "relatively low relative strength" to that list, meaning that if momentum stocks are out of favor, then it's important to choose stocks that haven't had that momentum.
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