Q&A: Paul Desmond of Lowry's, Part II

'87 missed by a year, but...

What a miss. Then '90, '94, '98, 2002 and that would lead us four years later to another major bottom in 2006. And I think the consistency of that over many, many, many years simply says that there is a cycle to the stock market, much like the cycle of weather. Every year has a summer and a winter to it. And we are used to that and we adjust to it. At the same time, the stock market has a cycle to it that is about very four years and investors need to realize that that cycle exists and to accept it and adapt to it.

People seem to have a hard time looking at cycles that are longer than they are used to. The day and night cycle ... the full moon, even the seasons are the type of cyclicality that humans very easily conceptualize. But thinking about four years, unless you are talking about presidential elections or Olympics, people don't really think that sort of cycle applies to the stock market.

Well, that is where the old saying comes from: Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Paul, that is the ultimate point to stop on. Thank you very much for your time.