"The big story is the drop in energy prices," Aaron Task, co-executive editor of TheStreet.com, told "RealMoney" radio show listeners on Tuesday. Task is filling in for host Jim Cramer this week.
Though this has been good for transportation stocks, economically sensitive stocks and chemical companies, it cuts both ways, Task said. "It's a rough day for the energy patch." "We're in this environment where folks who've made a lot of money in certain sectors," including energy, are not "waiting around to see what will happen," Task said. "They're selling first and asking questions later." From what the market is doing today, Task said, it looks like investors are betting that Ben Bernanke will back away from some hawkish comments made by other Fed policymakers when the chairman testifies before Congress on Wednesday. Hopefully Bernanke will realize that the low unemployment rate that has recently ramped up inflation fears is a misleading number, Task added. He cited the fact that there are many people who have left the job market and are no longer counted and that many people with jobs are not being paid what they believe they are worth. If Bernanke is more dovish, Task believes, that could be good for commodities and bad for the dollar. Task welcomed Doug Kass to the show. Kass is a general partner with Seabreeze Partners, and a contributor to TheStreet.com's sister site Street Insight and the man Task calls the "anti-Cramer." "I suspect that Bernanke will be relatively opaque," Kass said. "I expect a more hawkish approach in the next three of four Fed meetings. ... I'm looking for rates to hit 5.0% to 5.25% by midyear."
Kass has said previously that consumer spending will slow. In light of January's blowout consumer spending numbers, he acknowledged that they were very good.
But he said that February comparisons would be a lot tougher because there is more full-price merchandise in February and there won't be a "gift card effect" in the next two reports.
In terms of the energy sector, Kass called it "over-loved and over-owned" by momentum investors, adding that it's important to not be left holding the bag.
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